@BradJamin3 Survival for those aged 50-59 was 98.7% and 60-69 96.4%. That's not a gamble any "smart" person would want to take with their life. https://t.co/lPGQ1ABoDm
@MurielBlaivePhD Had to go fish it out - actually VERY interesting. My 3% was too low and my 50% was way too high. That's what comes of throwing figures around without checking them https://t.co/e10EMkmdzx https://t.co/Ve8B2CXyL8
RT @boguscorey: https://t.co/sVkJinAQ2x これの感染死亡率をもとに、日本の人口を当てはめて死者を計算してみた。 集団免疫はR0:2.5なので60%の所、急速拡大なら行きすぎるよね?って事で2割増し、ざっくりと武漢並みの医療で(一時崩壊) 損…
コロナが若者の命を奪わないなんて2020年の春にはわかりきっていた事なのにねえ https://t.co/sVkJinAQ2x
@ArqueroPublico @KCarterWriter @WSO_Soon @Coloidesoxigeno @el_pais Había gente como Ivan hace ya 3 años explicando las danzas de la lluvia que defienden esta gente. https://t.co/MXbIax0D7b
@KCarterWriter @WSO_Soon @Coloidesoxigeno @el_pais Te lo explicó Ivan hace años. Hasta un lerdo covidiano como tu lo entenderá: https://t.co/E8DBcoK4J8
@pieterstreicher @gillott_john @Jean__Fisch Pezzullo is a low outlier among IFR analyses that include multiple serology studies. Yet you cherry-picked it to make your point, despite its evident problems. Verity aligns with the non-outlier analyses. http
@Momonamission78 @Dr_D_Robertson This report is from two weeks after the email:- https://t.co/CTtdS5CQoZ It relies on apparently public information and covers a time frame of up until the 25th of February. In her position, Jenny Harries should've known
@br_cse_iitb @DrJBhattacharya Those numbers seem kind of ... cherry-picked. The Feb. 2020 @MRC_Outbreak estimate was 0.8% or 0.9% https://t.co/WK9xcZ7TgX In March 2020 that was revised down in the Lancet to 0.66%, in a population with the age structure of
Study is here. https://t.co/3sSgfsVPfU
@dylanarmbruste3 @InCytometry Ahha... Anyway, if I only have a 0.595% chance to die from it IF I catch this "super-deadly" disease (I haven't, for 3 yes now, w/o mask, w/o jabs), it's already good enough for me. https://t.co/FUfaMtBHUp Be well, dispute La
@JoshBiostats @freddiesayers @TomChivers It's been clear for awhile that one can get an average IFR of >0.5%, even with IFR increasing by age. It's amazing to see non-expert contrarians like Sayers pretend not to grasp the concept of "an average" http
23/F Sayers keeps fabricating in bad faith. Ferguson's work at Imperial College already showed IFR increasing with age. And that age trend doesn't mean Sayers gets to fabricate about what average IFR was. https://t.co/lqQwsEE3Lx https://t.co/mvDLYKuryy
@profontheright Actually , they should never have closed. It was known in Feb-March that there was near zero risk to students. https://t.co/BDyeASCxTL
This study pooled info from various sources (Wuhan cases, Diamond Princess, repatriation flights) to correct these biases and estimate fatality rate for different age groups https://t.co/r9JuRdRw5W
@dom155rich1 @Craig_A_Spencer @DrPops3 That's a bit melodramatic where the overall death rate from covid-19 was estimated at 0.66%, rising 7.8% in people aged over 80 and declining to 0.0016% in children under age 9. Lancet Infect Dis 2020 Mar 30. https:/
RT @ID_ethics: @LucyGoBag Data on the age-severity curve of covid19 were available from February 2020 (below) Young healthy people did not…
RT @ID_ethics: @LucyGoBag Data on the age-severity curve of covid19 were available from February 2020 (below) Young healthy people did not…
@LucyGoBag Data on the age-severity curve of covid19 were available from February 2020 (below) Young healthy people did not need to fear (for themselves) The age-severity curve has remained stable for 3 years, suggesting there was minimal uncertainty in
RT @ivaningrad: Aplicando estos datos en la curva de las muertes en España, situamos el pico de contagios, de nuevo, en la primera semana d…
RT @boguscorey: https://t.co/sVkJinAQ2x これの感染死亡率をもとに、日本の人口を当てはめて死者を計算してみた。 集団免疫はR0:2.5なので60%の所、急速拡大なら行きすぎるよね?って事で2割増し、ざっくりと武漢並みの医療で(一時崩壊) 損…
In this correspondance, the authors refer to a flawed estimation of covid-19 infection fatality rate: https://t.co/kDrLvR44e1 3/n
Insisto en lo incorrecta que es la comparación. Según esto de 2020 la IFR en >60 era de 3,28% [1,82–6,18]. Si tomamos la parte baja de la horquilla (1,82%) entonces hoy es CINCUENTA Y SEIS veces menor. Cálculos muy de servilleta, pero impresionantes.
@r_pasek @poprawnym2 @ArturStelmasiak ...podczas gdy jednocześnie były dostępne dane naukowe i statystyczne dobrze opisujące zjawisko (patrz niżej). Raczej wątpliwe jest, aby omikron w przypadku osoby nieuodpornionej był znacznie bardziej zjadliwy od orygi
Receipts! Thanks @kevinnbass #IFR
せめてこれぐらいの事を期待した
@DrAseemMalhotra Nah, Ioannidis estimates are outliers major reviews and several studies show different IFR estimates https://t.co/VTcHzmu5YU
@nerdtechgasm @AdoredTV @Faceplants00 https://t.co/QQls9Zzizr ioannidis estimates are the outliers @GidMK estimates are consistent with many eviews and studies
高齢者や基礎疾患持ちの命は、若者や健常者と等価ではないのですよ。 https://t.co/IPQt19d6fc
@bell00david And if you think the pre-print's IFR for children is plausible, then I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn, COVID-19 minimizer. 🙄 https://t.co/BZXlcXpMeP https://t.co/EXLNpYAYN4 https://t.co/DYv6YoHE4P
RT @bell00david: 2/2 And 0.0003% for 0-19 years (ie. very rare in healthy children). Early refs: https://t.co/BDyeASD5Jj https://t.co/5VA…
RT @bell00david: 2/2 And 0.0003% for 0-19 years (ie. very rare in healthy children). Early refs: https://t.co/BDyeASD5Jj https://t.co/5VA…
RT @bell00david: 2/2 And 0.0003% for 0-19 years (ie. very rare in healthy children). Early refs: https://t.co/BDyeASD5Jj https://t.co/5VA…
2/2 And 0.0003% for 0-19 years (ie. very rare in healthy children). Early refs: https://t.co/BDyeASD5Jj https://t.co/5VAWwNiess
RT @adamjkucharski: Traveller testing provided a lot of key early information on COVID, from fatality risk (https://t.co/DWE2KG2SPX) to und…
Traveller testing provided a lot of key early information on COVID, from fatality risk (https://t.co/DWE2KG2SPX) to undetected outbreaks (https://t.co/gVa2twYKZJ). But it's been harder to reconstruct epidemics over time... 3/
@andrew_lilico Lockdown was not driven by the idea that 20% of cases might require hospitalisation. The estimates we had came from this paper. Imperial reference it in Report 9 and used it to populate table 1. We knew hospitalisation risk was highly age st
@fingerspitz Samfunnet består ikke bare av dem. Dessuten har dette jevnt gått nedover med vaksinasjon og omikron-variantene. I april 2020 var det beste estimatet Verity, Okell et al 2020 https://t.co/DWFRWQTGl5
RT @hamagikukai: 毎度「エヴィデンスが!」って言ってた欧米インテリさん達は、さっさとイングランドやNY州で死亡率が爆上げの理由を説明してみ?w 根拠を出せよ? ユタ州との違いを言えるだろ?w → Estimates of the severity of…
@zorinaq If you're interested, then you may want to contact @dherrera1911: https://t.co/XfZ5TZLETM include infections in nursing homes: https://t.co/3O3qImV10R https://t.co/NydJvuskzk https://t.co/HRQZ7cHLm6 https://t.co/JTmDvSv1KJ https://t.co/ce59zsRfq
@dherrera1911 Comparison to estimated published by Verity et al. in March 2020, and which were relied on by Neil Ferguson's Imperial College team in the same month: https://t.co/n6BPRJrCYi https://t.co/HRQZ7cZmdE [https://t.co/JxM5fDyxHW] (cited on page
@kallmemeg Imperial report 4: Estimates of severity, first published 10 Feb 2020, before Lancet https://t.co/KQFZwAH6or
RT @adamjkucharski: For example, early exported cases provided indication of outbreak size (https://t.co/JlKAyvmmJZ), while Diamond Princes…
For example, early exported cases provided indication of outbreak size (https://t.co/JlKAyvmmJZ), while Diamond Princess and evacuation flights enabled estimates of fatality risk (https://t.co/eyvpt2XJaH & https://t.co/DwxUBJp8jW & https://t.co/wd4
@asterissco @ladyleoparda @bakarrikrock @excel_adicto Es que hay que ser inútil para pensar que la gráfica de casos NOTIFICADOS es cuando se produjeron los contagios. ¿Por qué te crees que el pico de casos notificados está tan cerca del de muertes, si de c
RT @Daoyu15: @humblesci @TheSeeker268 None of the asymptomatic, mild and non-hospitalized cases, which accounts for https://t.co/QVwCL8istQ…
@PhSteinkrueger @MartinKusch Oh, I know that I am better informed than you since you are the one who turned our debate into a personal attack. "Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39–1·33), with an increasing profile with
@jwp1966 @equal_ibrium ...you disagree with the published reports having age stratification and attack rates in them? Given that pandemic flu models have existed for decades I find that level of denial pretty incredible. https://t.co/cxvF66w2tC https://t
それなりの根拠あってです https://t.co/IPQt18W3dc
@robterheine @AnneliesdeZeeuw Ik kan de oude studie niet meer online vinden. Verwijderd door Lancet? Er is veel commentaar op geweest ook in media. Ik zie wel een latere studie waar de IFR op 0.66% is geschat. Later is deze nog weer verder bijgesteld naar
I remember this very distinctly from the beginning when people were making insane leaps from a few flights worth of examples out of Wuhan to calculate IFR and other things. They weren't even getting the universe of flights with data correct. It was wild. h
RT @Ussignur_: Da due anni sperimentano cose su tutta la popolazione invece di proporre soluzioni mirate https://t.co/qBQsXU9eNB
RT @Ussignur_: Da due anni sperimentano cose su tutta la popolazione invece di proporre soluzioni mirate https://t.co/qBQsXU9eNB
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
RT @Ussignur_: Da due anni sperimentano cose su tutta la popolazione invece di proporre soluzioni mirate https://t.co/qBQsXU9eNB
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
RT @Ussignur_: Ricordiamolo, https://t.co/zUJcXGq8eZ sappiamo la demografia delle morti Covid (anziani e fragili) da MARZO 2020 (con tanto…
RT @Ussignur_: Da due anni sperimentano cose su tutta la popolazione invece di proporre soluzioni mirate https://t.co/qBQsXU9eNB
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
RT @Ussignur_: Da due anni sperimentano cose su tutta la popolazione invece di proporre soluzioni mirate https://t.co/qBQsXU9eNB
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
RT @Ussignur_: Da due anni sperimentano cose su tutta la popolazione invece di proporre soluzioni mirate https://t.co/qBQsXU9eNB
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
RT @Ussignur_: Da due anni sperimentano cose su tutta la popolazione invece di proporre soluzioni mirate https://t.co/qBQsXU9eNB
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
RT @Ussignur_: Da due anni sperimentano cose su tutta la popolazione invece di proporre soluzioni mirate https://t.co/qBQsXU9eNB
RT @Ussignur_: Ricordiamolo, https://t.co/zUJcXGq8eZ sappiamo la demografia delle morti Covid (anziani e fragili) da MARZO 2020 (con tanto…
RT @Ussignur_: Da due anni sperimentano cose su tutta la popolazione invece di proporre soluzioni mirate https://t.co/qBQsXU9eNB
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
Da due anni sperimentano cose su tutta la popolazione invece di proporre soluzioni mirate https://t.co/qBQsXU9eNB
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
RT @Ussignur_: Ricordiamolo, https://t.co/zUJcXGq8eZ sappiamo la demografia delle morti Covid (anziani e fragili) da MARZO 2020 (con tanto…
RT @Ussignur_: Ricordiamolo, https://t.co/zUJcXGq8eZ sappiamo la demografia delle morti Covid (anziani e fragili) da MARZO 2020 (con tanto…
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
RT @Ussignur_: Ricordiamolo, https://t.co/zUJcXGq8eZ sappiamo la demografia delle morti Covid (anziani e fragili) da MARZO 2020 (con tanto…
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis - The Lancet Infectious Diseases https://t.co/SLZvJkimZp
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
RT @Ussignur_: Ricordiamolo, https://t.co/zUJcXGq8eZ sappiamo la demografia delle morti Covid (anziani e fragili) da MARZO 2020 (con tanto…
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL
RT @jeffreyatucker: Oh, look, we've known about the demographics of Covid death since March 30, 2020!!! https://t.co/2PH4PLTdgL